FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258.36 – 302.53

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 90.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344 ±10.4

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 134.16Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 64.23Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 59.97Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.6 ±9.8

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 26.92Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 138.33Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 137.28Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5144, 10978, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5144, 10978, 217

Auto

14.6 6%

Teleop

153.9 62%

Endgame

79.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6088, 5660, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6088, 5660, 1506

Auto

73.4 24%

Teleop

151.2 50%

Endgame

77.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.4pts

Blue projected score302.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.2
Score range: 197–364
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 340.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344Season APEX522.6

14.6Auto73.4

153.9Teleop151.2

79.6Endgame77.3

80Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	83
teleop	75	214
endgame	64	89
foul	0	15
total	175	401

Result

Final score

175 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 90.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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