FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

458.89 – 206.07

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

558 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 111.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 734.7 ±8.7

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 157.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 137.14Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 164.56Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.7 ±9.8

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 69.29Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 33.9Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 102.88Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6121, 4362, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

458.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6121, 4362, 67

Auto

85.3 19%

Teleop

275.8 60%

Endgame

97.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5676, 10666, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5676, 10666, 9572

Auto

41.3 21%

Teleop

100.5 51%

Endgame

55.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.95 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score458.9pts

Blue projected score206.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 252.8
Score range: 145–520
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 888 vs event baseline 338.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

734.7Season APEX457.7

85.3Auto41.3

275.8Teleop100.5

97.6Endgame55.2

113Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	52
teleop	391	193
endgame	152	80
foul	0	5
total	558	330

Result

Final score

558 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 111.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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