FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.56 – 279.07

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

458 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 674.2 ±8.8

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 225.46Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 94.66Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 156.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.1 ±9.3

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 88.18Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 119.83Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 71.06Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5907, 5567, 6002

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.6 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5907, 5567, 6002

Auto

94.3 20%

Teleop

288.0 60%

Endgame

95.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1025, 3620, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1025, 3620, 9771

Auto

59.3 21%

Teleop

181.6 65%

Endgame

37.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.82 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score476.6pts

Blue projected score279.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.5
Score range: 218–538
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 753 vs event baseline 337.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

674.2Season APEX557.1

94.3Auto59.3

288Teleop181.6

95.4Endgame37.7

178Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	54
teleop	224	141
endgame	111	100
foul	0	0
total	458	295

Result

Final score

458 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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