FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

327.16 – 328.35

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 117.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.7 ±9.8

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 50.32Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 140.9Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 135.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.4 ±9.8

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 18.24Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 142.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 167.92Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8352, 1189, 85

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8352, 1189, 85

Auto

49.9 16%

Teleop

168.6 53%

Endgame

100.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8126, 7160, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8126, 7160, 1502

Auto

47.7 15%

Teleop

186.4 58%

Endgame

86.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score327.2pts

Blue projected score328.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.2
Score range: 266–389
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 340.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.7Season APEX461.4

49.9Auto47.7

168.6Teleop186.4

100.9Endgame86.3

117Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	35
teleop	173	65
endgame	71	32
foul	0	0
total	289	132

Result

Final score

289 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 117.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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