FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.66 – 245.28

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

209 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440 ±9.8

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 83.63Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 103.37Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 64.66Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.4 ±9.8

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 91.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 23.36Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 130.83Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10978, 51, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10978, 51, 5676

Auto

41.3 16%

Teleop

131.8 52%

Endgame

80.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7220, 4680, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7220, 4680, 5144

Auto

51.5 21%

Teleop

117.8 49%

Endgame

73.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.7pts

Blue projected score245.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 183–314
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 343.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440Season APEX490.4

41.3Auto51.5

131.8Teleop117.8

80.7Endgame73.3

155Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	43
teleop	111	153
endgame	21	28
foul	55	20
total	209	244

Result

Final score

209 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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