FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

306.5 – 355.49

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±8.1

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 119.68Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 135.72Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 51.1Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±9.8

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 93.73Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 142.75Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 119.01Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1506, 6002, 245

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1506, 6002, 245

Auto

50.0 16%

Teleop

166.9 54%

Endgame

91.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5567, 4362, 5505

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5567, 4362, 5505

Auto

49.9 14%

Teleop

208.2 59%

Endgame

96.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score306.5pts

Blue projected score355.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49
Score range: 245–417
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 755 vs event baseline 342.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

710Season APEX445.7

50Auto49.9

166.9Teleop208.2

91.7Endgame96.9

112Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	66
teleop	213	194
endgame	71	86
foul	5	0
total	409	346

Result

Final score

409 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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