FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.79 – 289.99

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 112.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.1 ±9.8

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 70.94Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 58.11Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 162.74Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.3 ±9.8

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 144.84Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 15.64Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 129.51Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 11493, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3357, 11493, 2054

Auto

58.4 20%

Teleop

172.1 59%

Endgame

59.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 6088, 85

/ 100 compat

Projected

290 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 6088, 85

Auto

68.5 24%

Teleop

150.0 52%

Endgame

72.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score291.8pts

Blue projected score290pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.8
Score range: 228–354
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 344.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.1Season APEX487.3

58.4Auto68.5

172.1Teleop150

59.7Endgame72.6

111Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	87
teleop	52	174
endgame	16	74
foul	0	15
total	127	350

Result

Final score

127 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 112.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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