Qualification · Qualification 42
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
405.43 – 388.96
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
420 – 484
Prediction missed · off by 54.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 148.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 160.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 232Event APEX 96.63Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 629.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 50.08Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 127.73Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 211.15Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5660, 1502, 9572
78
/ 100 compatProjected
405.4 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5660, 1502, 9572
Auto
84.4 21%
Teleop
202.0 50%
Endgame
115.2 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9771, 3875, 5907
70
/ 100 compatProjected
389 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9771, 3875, 5907
Auto
55.3 14%
Teleop
246.4 64%
Endgame
84.6 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score405.4pts
Blue projected score389pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 38%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 16.5
- Score range
- 327–467
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
534.9Season APEX629.5
84.4Auto55.3
202Teleop246.4
115.2Endgame84.6
154Consistency120
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 75 | 110 |
| teleop | 198 | 266 |
| endgame | 137 | 108 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 420 | 484 |
Result
Final score
420 – 484
Prediction missed · off by 54.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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