FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

393.64 – 439.03

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 148.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.3 ±9.8

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 191.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 72.01Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 130.17Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 738.4 ±9.3

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 125.18Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 264.34Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 49.51Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6121, 10666, 1025

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6121, 10666, 1025

Auto

42.0 11%

Teleop

271.4 69%

Endgame

77.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3620, 7769, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

439 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3620, 7769, 217

Auto

68.1 16%

Teleop

248.2 58%

Endgame

110.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.71 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score393.6pts

Blue projected score439pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.4
Score range: 332–501
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 343.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.3Season APEX738.4

42Auto68.1

271.4Teleop248.2

77.8Endgame110.2

118Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	114
teleop	58	287
endgame	13	63
foul	0	0
total	122	464

Result

Final score

122 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 148.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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