FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.45 – 194.25

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 136.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±9.8

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 35.34Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 54.54Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 137.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.3 ±9.3

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 57.11Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 56.49Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 80.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4680, 8352, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4680, 8352, 1506

Auto

41.1 19%

Teleop

92.7 42%

Endgame

86.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10978, 2075, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10978, 2075, 7220

Auto

38.6 20%

Teleop

98.1 50%

Endgame

59.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score227.5pts

Blue projected score194.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.2
Score range: 132–289
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 346.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.8Season APEX571.3

41.1Auto38.6

92.7Teleop98.1

86.5Endgame59

32Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	78
teleop	57	197
endgame	3	83
foul	5	0
total	118	358

Result

Final score

118 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 136.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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