FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.87 – 409.57

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±9.8

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 72.41Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 60.27Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 35.19Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.3 ±9.3

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 82.15Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 177.28Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 150.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 4381, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9771, 4381, 10978

Auto

48.5 29%

Teleop

76.8 46%

Endgame

40.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3668, 67, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 67, 1189

Auto

68.5 17%

Teleop

225.6 56%

Endgame

109.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score167.9pts

Blue projected score409.6pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -241.7
Score range: 101–477
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 372.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.6Season APEX679.3

48.5Auto68.5

76.8Teleop225.6

40.8Endgame109.6

82Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	19
teleop	94	250
endgame	5	114
foul	0	0
total	134	383

Result

Final score

134 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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