FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

393.01 – 482.06

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

425 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 87 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 598.4 ±9.4

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 50.58Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 8.41Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 334.02Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661 ±8.8

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 152.57Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 162.13Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 167.36Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 8126, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

393 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3357, 8126, 27

Auto

110.1 28%

Teleop

230.2 60%

Endgame

46.5 12%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6002, 5144, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

482.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6002, 5144, 4362

Auto

58.7 12%

Teleop

251.6 52%

Endgame

170.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score393pts

Blue projected score482.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.1
Score range: 331–544
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 765 vs event baseline 345.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

598.4Season APEX661

110.1Auto58.7

230.2Teleop251.6

46.5Endgame170

181Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	94
teleop	224	221
endgame	88	25
foul	0	0
total	425	340

Result

Final score

425 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 87 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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