FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.76 – 243.59

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633 ±8.7

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 47.48Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 113.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 139.32Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.5 ±9.8

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 118.06Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 77.48Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 48.05Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 245, 1189, 10633

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 245, 1189, 10633

Auto

51.4 17%

Teleop

161.5 54%

Endgame

85.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 85, 51, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 85, 51, 11493

Auto

70.2 29%

Teleop

147.0 60%

Endgame

26.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.8pts

Blue projected score243.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.2
Score range: 182–363
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 693 vs event baseline 345.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633Season APEX589.5

51.4Auto70.2

161.5Teleop147

85.8Endgame26.7

124Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	60
teleop	223	159
endgame	86	103
foul	0	0
total	371	322

Result

Final score

371 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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