FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

259.56 – 527.69

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 640

Prediction correct · off by 94.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±10.4

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 145.44Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 106.66Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 7.46Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 944.3 ±8.7

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 188.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 86.98Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 252.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1025, 5567, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1025, 5567, 4381

Auto

48.1 19%

Teleop

191.1 75%

Endgame

15.0 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5907, 9572, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

527.7 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5907, 9572, 7769

Auto

101.8 20%

Teleop

335.9 65%

Endgame

82.4 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.97 · Blue 3.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score259.6pts

Blue projected score527.7pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -268.1
Score range: 198–590
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 823 vs event baseline 343.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.2Season APEX944.3

48.1Auto101.8

191.1Teleop335.9

15Endgame82.4

110Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	83
teleop	91	358
endgame	69	199
foul	5	0
total	183	640

Result

Final score

183 – 640

Prediction correct · off by 94.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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