FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

393.1 – 311.58

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

306 – 568

Prediction missed · off by 171.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.5 ±9.8

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 141.45Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 86.74Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 164.91Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 773.6 ±8.7

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 115.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 117.57Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 78.56Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 5676, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8517, 5676, 7160

Auto

60.4 15%

Teleop

222.7 56%

Endgame

117.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2054, 67, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2054, 67, 3620

Auto

66.4 22%

Teleop

185.0 61%

Endgame

53.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score393.1pts

Blue projected score311.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.5
Score range: 251–454
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 874 vs event baseline 340.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.5Season APEX773.6

60.4Auto66.4

222.7Teleop185

117Endgame53.3

147Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	94
teleop	171	351
endgame	88	123
foul	5	0
total	306	568

Result

Final score

306 – 568

Prediction missed · off by 171.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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