FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

243.34 – 414.59

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

373 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 76 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.7 ±10.4

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 94.44Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 40.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 108.19Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.6 ±9.3

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 175.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 179.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 60.42Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 85, 10666, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 85, 10666, 5660

Auto

65.2 26%

Teleop

99.3 40%

Endgame

82.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 6121, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1502, 6121, 2075

Auto

89.1 22%

Teleop

233.9 57%

Endgame

84.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score243.3pts

Blue projected score414.6pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.2
Score range: 181–477
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 810 vs event baseline 341.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.7Season APEX573.6

65.2Auto89.1

99.3Teleop233.9

82.7Endgame84.2

172Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	42
teleop	224	223
endgame	68	172
foul	0	0
total	373	437

Result

Final score

373 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 76 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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