FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

416.87 – 423.71

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

501 – 213

Prediction missed · off by 147.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.9 ±9.3

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 104.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 189.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 123.01Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509 ±9.8

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 172.38Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 212.63Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 38.7Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10633, 5907, 1025

/ 100 compat

Projected

416.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10633, 5907, 1025

Auto

50.6 12%

Teleop

291.4 70%

Endgame

76.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1506, 5144, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1506, 5144, 8126

Auto

4.3 1%

Teleop

274.1 66%

Endgame

134.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score416.9pts

Blue projected score423.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.8
Score range: 356–485
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 714 vs event baseline 341.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

685.9Season APEX509

50.6Auto4.3

291.4Teleop274.1

76Endgame134.9

126Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	12
teleop	364	92
endgame	63	109
foul	0	0
total	501	213

Result

Final score

501 – 213

Prediction missed · off by 147.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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