FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

491.83 – 378.31

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

301 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 108.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.9 ±8.7

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 204.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 141.17Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 146.34Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.5 ±8.8

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 147.55Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 157.54Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 73.22Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 9572, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7160, 9572, 67

Auto

54.1 11%

Teleop

329.4 67%

Endgame

111.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8517, 6002, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8517, 6002, 7220

Auto

65.8 17%

Teleop

217.2 57%

Endgame

98.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.6 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score491.8pts

Blue projected score378.3pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.5
Score range: 316–554
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 341.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

759.9Season APEX691.5

54.1Auto65.8

329.4Teleop217.2

111.1Endgame98.7

90Consistency182

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	89
teleop	147	166
endgame	52	97
foul	5	0
total	301	352

Result

Final score

301 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 108.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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