FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

270.93 – 592.03

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 582

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.9 ±9.8

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 134.37Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 64.99Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 71.57Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 882.1 ±8.1

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 63.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 207.64Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 321.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5567, 245, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5567, 245, 10978

Auto

29.0 11%

Teleop

146.4 53%

Endgame

100.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3620, 4362, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

592 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3620, 4362, 27

Auto

116.9 20%

Teleop

365.1 63%

Endgame

101.4 17%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.89 · Blue 3.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score270.9pts

Blue projected score592pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -321.1
Score range: 210–653
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 747 vs event baseline 340.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.9Season APEX882.1

29Auto116.9

146.4Teleop365.1

100.2Endgame101.4

168Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	164
teleop	75	299
endgame	68	119
foul	0	0
total	165	582

Result

Final score

165 – 582

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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