FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.2 – 209.51

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.7 ±9.8

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -1.03Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 103.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 81.01Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.5 ±9.8

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 35.22Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 47.62Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 126.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6088, 2054, 8352

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6088, 2054, 8352

Auto

62.4 37%

Teleop

84.6 50%

Endgame

23.6 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10666, 217, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10666, 217, 1189

Auto

28.7 14%

Teleop

112.6 55%

Endgame

62.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score183.2pts

Blue projected score209.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.3
Score range: 121–272
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 345.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.7Season APEX464.5

62.4Auto28.7

84.6Teleop112.6

23.6Endgame62.1

129Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	73
teleop	93	106
endgame	36	63
foul	0	0
total	194	242

Result

Final score

194 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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