FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

272.65 – 314.77

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

272 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.3 ±9.8

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 64.73Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 141.65Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 66.27Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588 ±9.3

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 103.22Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 111.75Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10633BeeBotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 99.8Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10666, 2054, 5567

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10666, 2054, 5567

Auto

50.5 19%

Teleop

146.8 55%

Endgame

70.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5144, 2075, 10633

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5144, 2075, 10633

Auto

37.8 12%

Teleop

183.5 59%

Endgame

91.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272.7pts

Blue projected score314.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.1
Score range: 206–382
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 714 vs event baseline 372.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.3Season APEX588

50.5Auto37.8

146.8Teleop183.5

70.6Endgame91.5

98Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	40
teleop	166	236
endgame	55	166
foul	0	0
total	272	442

Result

Final score

272 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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