Qualification · Qualification 29
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
272.62 – 194.08
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
98 – 405
Prediction missed · off by 192.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.1 ±10.4
Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 94.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 66.89Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 111.08Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 6.24Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 61.84Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 126Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3668, 11493, 4680
57
/ 100 compatProjected
272.6 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3668, 11493, 4680
Auto
51.7 19%
Teleop
124.4 45%
Endgame
97.8 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9771, 5660, 6121
53
/ 100 compatProjected
194.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9771, 5660, 6121
Auto
41.3 21%
Teleop
117.1 60%
Endgame
36.7 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.48
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score272.6pts
Blue projected score194.1pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 34%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 78.5
- Score range
- 131–336
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
452.1Season APEX543.7
51.7Auto41.3
124.4Teleop117.1
97.8Endgame36.7
113Consistency205
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 34 | 91 |
| teleop | 57 | 233 |
| endgame | 7 | 81 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 98 | 405 |
Result
Final score
98 – 405
Prediction missed · off by 192.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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