FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

527.55 – 269.01

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

536 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 663.8 ±9.8

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 171.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 250.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 105.34Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±9.8

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 55.13Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 138.02Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 75.86Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1502, 7769, 3875

/ 100 compat

Projected

527.6 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1502, 7769, 3875

Auto

89.1 17%

Teleop

282.9 54%

Endgame

151.5 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 51, 5505, 3357

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 51, 5505, 3357

Auto

48.3 18%

Teleop

156.0 58%

Endgame

64.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 52%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.15 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score527.6pts

Blue projected score269pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 52%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 258.5
Score range: 207–590
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 828 vs event baseline 346.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

663.8Season APEX476

89.1Auto48.3

282.9Teleop156

151.5Endgame64.7

120Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	72
teleop	285	128
endgame	121	87
foul	35	5
total	536	292

Result

Final score

536 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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