FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

451.85 – 208.76

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 275

Prediction missed · off by 170 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.3 ±9.3

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 191.48Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 201.1Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 59.27Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.9 ±9.3

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 63.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 40.61Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 105.09Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 67, 1506, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 67, 1506, 4381

Auto

43.2 10%

Teleop

300.7 66%

Endgame

110.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3620, 245, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3620, 245, 5676

Auto

29.1 14%

Teleop

95.4 46%

Endgame

81.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.87 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score451.9pts

Blue projected score208.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 243.1
Score range: 146–515
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 350.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.3Season APEX549.9

43.2Auto29.1

300.7Teleop95.4

110.1Endgame81.3

101Consistency201

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	38
teleop	72	151
endgame	20	81
foul	20	5
total	178	275

Result

Final score

178 – 275

Prediction missed · off by 170 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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