FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

455.96 – 293.36

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.9 ±8.8

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 152.61Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 80.54Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 222.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.4 ±9.8

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 127.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 69.22Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 96.39Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6002, 85, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

456 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6002, 85, 7160

Auto

55.5 12%

Teleop

274.5 60%

Endgame

130.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6121, 10978, 4680

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6121, 10978, 4680

Auto

53.3 18%

Teleop

190.1 65%

Endgame

47.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.76 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score456pts

Blue projected score293.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.6
Score range: 229–520
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 729 vs event baseline 354.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.9Season APEX380.4

55.5Auto53.3

274.5Teleop190.1

130.4Endgame47.4

123Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	56
teleop	231	146
endgame	127	91
foul	0	0
total	436	293

Result

Final score

436 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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