FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.26 – 326.15

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

483 – 504

Prediction missed · off by 160.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.7 ±9.3

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 129.98Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 151.24Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 59.04Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.4 ±9.8

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 200.77Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 73.15Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 52.23Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4362, 7220, 3357

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4362, 7220, 3357

Auto

71.7 21%

Teleop

196.3 58%

Endgame

72.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5907, 3668, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5907, 3668, 10666

Auto

52.3 16%

Teleop

176.4 54%

Endgame

99.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score340.3pts

Blue projected score326.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.1
Score range: 264–402
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 987 vs event baseline 346.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.7Season APEX577.4

71.7Auto52.3

196.3Teleop176.4

72.5Endgame99.8

77Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	105
teleop	320	247
endgame	66	152
foul	0	0
total	483	504

Result

Final score

483 – 504

Prediction missed · off by 160.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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