FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

483.7 – 322.09

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

753 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 160.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 714.1 ±9.4

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 83.34Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 224.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 176.22Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.4 ±10.4

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 50.75Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 120.05Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 151.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1025, 27, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

483.7 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1025, 27, 5144

Auto

67.7 14%

Teleop

312.4 66%

Endgame

95.8 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4381, 5505, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4381, 5505, 1502

Auto

58.7 18%

Teleop

175.1 54%

Endgame

89.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.85 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score483.7pts

Blue projected score322.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.6
Score range: 260–546
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1127 vs event baseline 345.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

714.1Season APEX351.4

67.7Auto58.7

312.4Teleop175.1

95.8Endgame89.5

160Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	65
teleop	462	211
endgame	174	98
foul	10	0
total	753	374

Result

Final score

753 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 160.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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