FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

238.82 – 266.89

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.8 ±10.4

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 111.28Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -5.19Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 132.73Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.8 ±10.4

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 152.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 80.19Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 34.29Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5567, 6088, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5567, 6088, 8517

Auto

77.5 32%

Teleop

146.5 60%

Endgame

19.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3875, 5676, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3875, 5676, 5660

Auto

36.9 14%

Teleop

157.1 60%

Endgame

66.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score238.8pts

Blue projected score266.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.1
Score range: 176–330
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 593 vs event baseline 347.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.8Season APEX455.8

77.5Auto36.9

146.5Teleop157.1

19.8Endgame66.5

260Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	50
teleop	180	102
endgame	67	136
foul	0	0
total	305	288

Result

Final score

305 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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