FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

524.08 – 199.48

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 142.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 856.8 ±8.7

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 285.02Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 109.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 129.22Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628 ±9.3

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 73.79Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 134.52Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX -8.83Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7769, 2075, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

524.1 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7769, 2075, 51

Auto

75.7 14%

Teleop

295.7 56%

Endgame

158.5 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 1189, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11493, 1189, 9771

Auto

28.3 15%

Teleop

136.4 71%

Endgame

27.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.15 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score524.1pts

Blue projected score199.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 324.6
Score range: 135–588
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 353.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

856.8Season APEX628

75.7Auto28.3

295.7Teleop136.4

158.5Endgame27.5

150Consistency173

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	64
teleop	123	115
endgame	3	36
foul	15	0
total	255	215

Result

Final score

255 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 142.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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