FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.26 – 396.83

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 137.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 606 ±9.3

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 43.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 45.92Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 74.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 659.2 ±9.3

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 193.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 114.8Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 88.46Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9572, 85, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9572, 85, 3620

Auto

14.9 10%

Teleop

102.3 65%

Endgame

39.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1506, 7220, 3668

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1506, 7220, 3668

Auto

52.9 14%

Teleop

210.5 54%

Endgame

127.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164.3pts

Blue projected score396.8pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -232.6
Score range: 100–461
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 582 vs event baseline 356.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

606Season APEX659.2

14.9Auto52.9

102.3Teleop210.5

39.5Endgame127.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	17
teleop	178	148
endgame	78	100
foul	0	5
total	312	270

Result

Final score

312 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 137.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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