FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.71 – 319.14

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

350 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 82.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.5 ±9.8

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 161.57Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 137.57Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 105.57Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.6 ±9.3

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 167.81Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 34.14Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 117.19Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 3620, 5505

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8517, 3620, 5505

Auto

66.4 16%

Teleop

226.6 56%

Endgame

110.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4362, 8352, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4362, 8352, 51

Auto

71.4 23%

Teleop

181.5 58%

Endgame

59.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score404.7pts

Blue projected score319.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.6
Score range: 252–472
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 779 vs event baseline 372.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.5Season APEX579.6

66.4Auto71.4

226.6Teleop181.5

110.3Endgame59.4

114Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	78
teleop	214	229
endgame	112	122
foul	0	0
total	350	429

Result

Final score

350 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 82.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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