FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.1 – 302.98

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 83 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 644 ±9.3

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 55.06Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 103.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 152.3Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.5 ±9.3

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 44.14Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 126.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 132.63Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4381, 6121, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4381, 6121, 5907

Auto

33.4 11%

Teleop

220.3 71%

Endgame

55.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 245, 1502, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

303 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 245, 1502, 2054

Auto

62.5 20%

Teleop

163.5 53%

Endgame

80.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.15 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score311.1pts

Blue projected score303pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.1
Score range: 239–375
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 780 vs event baseline 354.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

644Season APEX548.5

33.4Auto62.5

220.3Teleop163.5

55.1Endgame80.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	79
teleop	267	164
endgame	52	128
foul	0	0
total	409	371

Result

Final score

409 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 83 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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