FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.98 – 332.29

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±10.4

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 65.62Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 103.07Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 25.29Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406 ±9.8

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 81.12Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 141.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 109.76Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10978, 5505, 6088

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10978, 5505, 6088

Auto

25.5 13%

Teleop

154.1 79%

Endgame

15.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5567, 2075, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5567, 2075, 8126

Auto

19.4 6%

Teleop

216.2 65%

Endgame

95.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194pts

Blue projected score332.3pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.3
Score range: 129–397
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 361.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.8Season APEX406

25.5Auto19.4

154.1Teleop216.2

15.8Endgame95.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	56
teleop	115	162
endgame	58	26
foul	0	0
total	215	244

Result

Final score

215 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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