FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

331.51 – 390.63

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

402 – 525

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.3 ±9.8

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 116.48Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 153.2Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 61.83Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.2 ±9.3

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 101.85Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 52.64Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 236.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4362, 3875, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4362, 3875, 11493

Auto

53.2 16%

Teleop

199.5 60%

Endgame

81.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 1025, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1189, 1025, 7769

Auto

8.6 2%

Teleop

298.0 78%

Endgame

77.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score331.5pts

Blue projected score390.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.1
Score range: 268–455
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 927 vs event baseline 354.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.3Season APEX801.2

53.2Auto8.6

199.5Teleop298

81Endgame77.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	78
teleop	241	314
endgame	112	128
foul	10	5
total	402	525

Result

Final score

402 – 525

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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