FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.67 – 205.82

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

284 – 305

Prediction missed · off by 66.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.1 ±9.3

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX -16.77Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 122.26Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 144.18Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.3 ±10.4

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 25.03Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 112.46Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 68.33Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9771, 51, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9771, 51, 5144

Auto

44.7 18%

Teleop

127.4 52%

Endgame

74.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10666, 8517, 3357

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10666, 8517, 3357

Auto

28.1 14%

Teleop

113.8 55%

Endgame

64.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score249.7pts

Blue projected score205.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.8
Score range: 141–315
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 358.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.1Season APEX387.3

44.7Auto28.1

127.4Teleop113.8

74.4Endgame64.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	77
teleop	157	170
endgame	75	58
foul	0	0
total	284	305

Result

Final score

284 – 305

Prediction missed · off by 66.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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