FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.81 – 136.09

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 152.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±8.8

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 44.82Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 46.64Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 76.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.6 ±10.4

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 30.79Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 28.95Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 76.35Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6002, 8126, 6121

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6002, 8126, 6121

Auto

23.0 14%

Teleop

103.7 62%

Endgame

40.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 85, 4381, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 85, 4381, 5676

Auto

20.0 15%

Teleop

78.9 59%

Endgame

35.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score167.8pts

Blue projected score136.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.7
Score range: 72–232
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 357.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.5Season APEX345.6

23Auto20

103.7Teleop78.9

40.8Endgame35.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	51
teleop	277	107
endgame	70	65
foul	5	0
total	385	223

Result

Final score

385 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 152.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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