Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
256.29 – 242.22
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
282 – 286
Prediction missed · off by 34.7 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 48.27Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 101.57Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 106.45Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 43.87Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 52.41Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 145.94Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6088, 10633, 4362
55
/ 100 compatProjected
256.3 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6088, 10633, 4362
Auto
42.8 16%
Teleop
120.9 46%
Endgame
97.2 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1025, 245, 3875
51
/ 100 compatProjected
242.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1025, 245, 3875
Auto
28.4 12%
Teleop
160.1 67%
Endgame
51.0 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.96 · Blue 2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score256.3pts
Blue projected score242.2pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 67%
Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 40%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 14.1
- Score range
- 176–322
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
515.9Season APEX499.1
42.8Auto28.4
120.9Teleop160.1
97.2Endgame51
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 76 | 12 |
| teleop | 174 | 172 |
| endgame | 32 | 102 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 282 | 286 |
Result
Final score
282 – 286
Prediction missed · off by 34.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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