FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.39 – 262.26

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

269 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±9.8

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 38.22Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 71.04Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 119.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.3 ±10.4

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 61.43Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 119.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 81.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 217, 5567, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 217, 5567, 7220

Auto

46.7 21%

Teleop

112.1 49%

Endgame

69.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 1502, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11493, 1502, 8517

Auto

58.5 22%

Teleop

138.5 52%

Endgame

68.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score228.4pts

Blue projected score262.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.9
Score range: 162–328
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 636 vs event baseline 368.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438Season APEX520.3

46.7Auto58.5

112.1Teleop138.5

69Endgame68.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	84
teleop	147	208
endgame	64	75
foul	5	0
total	269	367

Result

Final score

269 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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