FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

344.14 – 359.07

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

421 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 115.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 689.6 ±9.3

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 121.07Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 128.29Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 94.78Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 749.4 ±9.3

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 52.04Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 202.82Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 104.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2075, 5907, 5505

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2075, 5907, 5505

Auto

47.3 14%

Teleop

191.7 55%

Endgame

109.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10978, 7769, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10978, 7769, 67

Auto

28.8 8%

Teleop

222.6 62%

Endgame

109.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score344.1pts

Blue projected score359.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.9
Score range: 280–423
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 357.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

689.6Season APEX749.4

47.3Auto28.8

191.7Teleop222.6

109.5Endgame109.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	60
teleop	277	330
endgame	116	124
foul	0	0
total	421	514

Result

Final score

421 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 115.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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