FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

497.13 – 208.69

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

541 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632.4 ±9.4

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 351.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -0.44Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 145.61Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.5 ±10.4

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 42.42Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 69.01Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 97.26Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 4680, 3875

/ 100 compat

Projected

497.1 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 27, 4680, 3875

Auto

110.0 22%

Teleop

259.8 53%

Endgame

121.6 25%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 217, 3357, 85

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 217, 3357, 85

Auto

45.1 21%

Teleop

100.3 47%

Endgame

66.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.03 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score497.1pts

Blue projected score208.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 288.4
Score range: 142–564
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 749 vs event baseline 372.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632.4Season APEX340.5

110Auto45.1

259.8Teleop100.3

121.6Endgame66.6

105Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	34
teleop	323	83
endgame	108	86
foul	0	5
total	541	208

Result

Final score

541 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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