FIRST in Michigan State Championship - DTE Energy Foundation Division

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

730.95 – 477.08

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

706 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 87.21Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 356.94Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 286.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741 ±8.1

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 71.89Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 220.32Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6002ZooBOTix

Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 184.87Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 27, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

731 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 27, 7769

Auto

149.2 21%

Teleop

398.6 55%

Endgame

179.8 25%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 5907, 6002

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9771, 5907, 6002

Auto

110.9 23%

Teleop

233.3 49%

Endgame

133.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.06 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score731pts

Blue projected score477.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 253.9
Score range: 411–797
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1143 vs event baseline 368.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

926Season APEX741

149.2Auto110.9

398.6Teleop233.3

179.8Endgame133.6

63Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	174	112
teleop	311	162
endgame	201	163
foul	20	0
total	706	437

Result

Final score

706 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Match videos

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