FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.24 – 186.74

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.5 ±13.3

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 55.55Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 23.95Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 27.74Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.3 ±11

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 28.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 69Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 89.72Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7501, 8124, 4216

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7501, 8124, 4216

Auto

29.9 29%

Teleop

50.8 49%

Endgame

23.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5708, 9210, 3668

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5708, 9210, 3668

Auto

39.3 22%

Teleop

94.7 52%

Endgame

48.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score186.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.5
Score range: 80–214
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.5Season APEX387.3

29.9Auto39.3

50.8Teleop94.7

23.3Endgame48.5

49Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	31
teleop	44	135
endgame	27	71
foul	0	0
total	106	237

Result

Final score

106 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Match videos

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