FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.92 – 184.64

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390 ±11

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 90.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 110.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 20.77Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.3 ±8.1

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 64.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 76.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 44.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5144, 2611, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5144, 2611, 240

Auto

28.6 13%

Teleop

115.8 54%

Endgame

69.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 503, 8373, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 503, 8373, 1076

Auto

34.7 19%

Teleop

105.8 58%

Endgame

42.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.9pts

Blue projected score184.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.3
Score range: 158–249
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 149.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390Season APEX667.3

28.6Auto34.7

115.8Teleop105.8

69.6Endgame42.7

32Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	37
teleop	125	116
endgame	12	43
foul	0	0
total	180	196

Result

Final score

180 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 26.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.