FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.34 – 152.69

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.3

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 39.59Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 55.07Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 100.68Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.9 ±11.6

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 43.87Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 58.15Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 50.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7056, 302, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7056, 302, 3656

Auto

28.7 15%

Teleop

111.3 58%

Endgame

51.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6570, 5046, 6081

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6570, 5046, 6081

Auto

37.5 24%

Teleop

75.1 49%

Endgame

40.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.3pts

Blue projected score152.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.7
Score range: 126–222
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.4Season APEX333.9

28.7Auto37.5

111.3Teleop75.1

51.7Endgame40.6

39Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	30
teleop	146	70
endgame	85	45
foul	0	5
total	258	150

Result

Final score

258 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Match videos

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