FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.08 – 185.45

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.3 ±11

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 91.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 70.52Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 29.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.3 ±10.5

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 20.75Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 65.56Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 99.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 9210, 5708

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3668, 9210, 5708

Auto

34.6 18%

Teleop

102.2 54%

Endgame

51.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5530, 7197, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 7197, 3641

Auto

28.8 16%

Teleop

103.7 57%

Endgame

49.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.1pts

Blue projected score185.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.6
Score range: 158–219
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.3Season APEX450.3

34.6Auto28.8

102.2Teleop103.7

51.2Endgame49.7

18Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	43
teleop	66	109
endgame	39	74
foul	5	15
total	168	241

Result

Final score

168 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 39.8 pts

Match videos

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