FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.61 – 212.4

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.3

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 41.99Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 102.65Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 57.97Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.3 ±10.5

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 30.06Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 74.91Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 107.43Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7056, 3656, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7056, 3656, 302

Auto

28.4 14%

Teleop

116.4 58%

Endgame

55.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5530, 7197, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 7197, 3641

Auto

38.1 18%

Teleop

116.6 56%

Endgame

52.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.6pts

Blue projected score212.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 175–240
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 155.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.4Season APEX450.3

28.4Auto38.1

116.4Teleop116.6

55Endgame52.8

53Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	36
teleop	171	140
endgame	42	47
foul	15	5
total	272	228

Result

Final score

272 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 42.5 pts

Match videos

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