FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.59 – 206.7

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.3 ±8.1

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 76.75Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 65.84Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.3 ±10.5

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 28.2Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 73.13Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 105.37Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1076, 8373, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1076, 8373, 503

Auto

33.4 18%

Teleop

102.2 55%

Endgame

49.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5530, 7197, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 7197, 3641

Auto

36.5 18%

Teleop

112.3 56%

Endgame

52.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.6pts

Blue projected score206.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.1
Score range: 160–235
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.3Season APEX450.3

33.4Auto36.5

102.2Teleop112.3

49.5Endgame52.3

22Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	49
teleop	45	147
endgame	73	56
foul	0	0
total	157	252

Result

Final score

157 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Match videos

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