FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.24 – 195.01

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.3 ±8.1

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 44.15Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 76.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 65.01Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.3 ±11

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 31.61Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 71.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 92.21Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1076, 8373, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1076, 8373, 503

Auto

32.5 18%

Teleop

105.2 58%

Endgame

44.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5708, 9210, 3668

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5708, 9210, 3668

Auto

37.6 20%

Teleop

102.0 53%

Endgame

51.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.2pts

Blue projected score195pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 157–223
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.3Season APEX387.3

32.5Auto37.6

105.2Teleop102

44.7Endgame51.9

11Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	58
teleop	80	95
endgame	75	20
foul	0	10
total	195	183

Result

Final score

195 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 10.9 pts

Match videos

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