FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.68 – 158.31

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±12.2

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 47.28Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 34.64Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10285Sacred Heart Outlanders

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 9.76Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±11.7

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 104.75Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -9.89Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 63.45Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6081, 7056, 10285

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6081, 7056, 10285

Auto

28.9 32%

Teleop

36.8 41%

Endgame

23.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2611, 5205, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2611, 5205, 7197

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

90.6 57%

Endgame

42.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.7pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.6
Score range: 66–184
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX378.9

28.9Auto24.3

36.8Teleop90.6

23.3Endgame42.7

72Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	33
teleop	51	121
endgame	44	69
foul	0	0
total	138	223

Result

Final score

138 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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