FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.1 – 173

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.3 ±11.7

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 29.21Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 52.69Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 17.2Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±11.7

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 46.16Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 93.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 33.53Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9618, 5046, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9618, 5046, 1502

Auto

12.5 14%

Teleop

45.1 49%

Endgame

34.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6570, 3641, 4216

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6570, 3641, 4216

Auto

35.4 21%

Teleop

91.3 55%

Endgame

40.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.1pts

Blue projected score173pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.9
Score range: 74–198
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.3Season APEX413.4

12.5Auto35.4

45.1Teleop91.3

34.8Endgame40.6

51Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	46
teleop	74	119
endgame	59	30
foul	0	0
total	165	195

Result

Final score

165 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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